Figures 1-17, 1-18, 5-1, 6-1, and 7-1

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The spreadsheet shown below contains the underlying data for the Papa Bear Portfolio, the Mama Bear Portfolio, the Baby Bear Portfolio, and the S&P 500. This dataset is used in Figures 1-17, 1-18, 5-1, 6-1, and 7-1 of the book.

From Dec. 31, 1972, through Dec. 31, 2015, the numbers for the S&P 500 (including dividends), Papa Bear, Mama Bear, and Baby Bear are estimates from the Quant simulator, available from Mebane Faber by subscription to The Idea Farm Newsletter. The S&P 500 numbers include today’s 0.05% annual cost of holding an index fund, such as VOO. The other columns include today’s average annual cost of holding the ETFs required for each portfolio, plus 0.10% round-trip transaction costs per trade (such as bid-ask spreads). For more information, see the figures in the book.

From Jan. 1, 2016, through Mar. 31, 2020, the numbers are actual balances based on real-money accounts at, including actual fees and transaction costs. Folio discontinued all retail accounts at the end of 2020, closing our real-money tracking accounts.

For numbers from Jan. 1, 2007, through today, see the daily-updated pages at, which use actual ETF prices for the Papa Bear, Mama Bear, and Baby Bear.

Muscular Portfolios always hold three different asset classes, providing growth as well as protection from crashes. This diversification means that a Muscular Portfolio will almost always lag the S&P 500 during a bull market. Muscular Portfolios only beat the index during bear markets, which is enough to outperform the S&P 500 over complete bear-bull market cycles. Best of all, Muscular Portfolios are designed to never lose more than 20% to 25%, even when the S&P 500 crashes 50% or more. (The Baby Bear is not a Muscular Portfolio but a “starter portfolio.” It is recommended only for people with less than $10,000 to invest who wish to hold down trading expenses.)

For details on the portfolios, see our FAQ page.

The bear markets in the dataset below (based on month-end values) began on Dec. 31, 1972; Aug. 31, 1987; Aug. 31, 2000; Oct. 31, 2007, and Dec. 31, 2019.

The numbers on this page will not be updated. Please see the links above for the latest data.

Please allow 30 seconds for the spreadsheet form below to render via Zoho Office. If, for any reason, the form never appears in your browser, download the spreadsheet file.


Figures 1-17, 1-18, 5-1, 6-1, and 7-1 (1973 through 2018):


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