Figures 1-17, 1-18, 5-1, 6-1, and 7-1

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The spreadsheet shown below contains the underlying data for the S&P 500, the Papa Bear Portfolio, the Mama Bear Portfolio, and the Baby Bear Portfolio. This dataset is used in Figures 1-17, 1-18, 5-1, 6-1, and 7-1 of the book.

From Dec. 31, 1972, through Dec. 31, 2015, the numbers for the S&P 500 (including dividends), Papa Bear, Mama Bear, and Baby Bear are estimates from the Quant simulator, available from Mebane Faber by subscription to the The Idea Farm Newsletter. The S&P 500 numbers include today’s 0.05% annual cost of holding an index fund, such as VOO. The other columns include today’s average annual cost of holding the ETFs required for each portfolio, plus 0.10% round-trip transaction costs per trade. For more information, see the figures in the book.

Numbers after Dec. 31, 2015, are actual balances based on real-money accounts at, including actual fees and transaction costs.

Muscular Portfolios always hold three different asset classes for growth and protection from crashes. This diversification means that a Muscular Portfolio will almost always lag the S&P 500 during a bull market. Muscular Portfolios only beat the index during bear markets, which is enough to outperform it over complete bear-bull market cycles.

The bear markets in the monthly dataset below began on Dec. 31, 1972; Aug. 31, 1987; Aug. 31, 2000; and Oct. 31, 2007.

We intend to add 12 months of new data to the numbers each January.

Download the spreadsheet


Figures 1-17, 1-18, 5-1, 6-1, and 7-1:



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